Handicapping the Survivor Blood vs. Water finale: shocking prediction!

12 Dec

In computer-like fashion I decided to look at every possible combination of players and jury members at Sunday’s finals and predict the votes in each scenario, to see who has the best overall chance to win!

OK, there was one small cheat: I assumed for this purpose that Tina will definitely be on the jury and not back in the game. Since she would have to finish a challenge ahead of both Laura and Hayden who are fantastic challenge competitors, I think this is a pretty safe assumption to make.

Let’s get right to it.

#1 contender: HAYDEN. Out of the 20 possible combinations of players at the finals I have him winning 7 1/2 of them (1/2, you ask? Well, some of my predictions came out as ties).

Duo to try to take: Tyson and Gervase or Tyson and Monica. Either way, Hayden is up against Tyson’s alliance, who much of the jury is mad at, without another “sympathetic” person to steal away votes.

Duo to avoid taking: Gervase and Laura. With this combination he gets neither the votes of Tyson and Monica, nor the vote of Ciera, and probably not Katie and Tina either.

Of course, there’s one other major roadblock for Hayden: he’s on Redemption Island and needs to beat both Tina and Laura in the next duel. Otherwise he’s out of the game.

#2 contender: CIERA. Not that I think she played that great a game, because I don’t. But the makeup of the jury will be very favorable to her.

Duo to try to take: Tyson and Monica. In this scenario, it’s possible the only vote she wouldn’t get would be that of Gervase!

Duo to avoid taking: Hayden and Tyson. She wouldn’t get the votes of Monica or Gervase of course, and the I-hate-Tyson club would have a better alternative in Hayden.

#3 contender: GERVASE. Of course he has been #1 in my rankings for most of this year. And luckily he has a higher likelihood of actually making the finals than either of the two I have ranked in front of him.

Duo to try to take: I don’t see him running away with a vote in an scenario, but his best chance might be to go with Monica and Laura. I’m banking on the idea here that Aras and Vytas don’t particularly care for either of those two women.

Duo to avoid taking: Monica and Tyson! Yes, those two are part of \his core alliance of three. But in that trio he is neither the one who played the best game (Tyson is) nor can he claim to be the one whose “hands are the cleanest” (Monica is) or the best challenge competitor (again Monica).

And yes, I am saying that it would behoove Gervase to betray his alliance if he wants to win the game (but he’d have to do it in a way that Tyson and Monica would vote for him anyway).

#4 contender: MONICA.

Duo to try to take: Gervase and Tyson, for sure. Most of the people who have beefs with them have no beef with her, and there would be no alternative for the anti-Tyson crowd.

Duo to avoid taking: Tyson and either Laura, Hayden, or Ciera. In each case, she would neither be the person who played the best game, nor the person people like the most.

#5 contender: LAURA. Of course, she has to win the duel to get back in the game first.

Duo to try to take: Tyson and Monica. The people who were ousted by Tyson could be bitter, and Laura has more friends on the jury than Monica does.

Duo to avoid taking: Gervase and Ciera. Laura could well split votes with her own daughter (and lose), and people don’t seem to be as bitter at Gervase as they are at Tyson.

#6 contender: TYSON??? What the?? Why is the best player in the game ranked last? Well, it’s because lately juries haven’t been picking the best player to win, they have been holding grudges and voting for their friends. Tyson engineered a few ousters, and is also not the most likable guy in the world.

Duo to try to take: Gervase and Laura. Even this is far from a sure thing. But he can argue that he was the man in charge in his alliance and thus outplayed Gervase, and I think the people on the jury (other than Ciera) don’t have the warmest of warm feelings about Laura.

Duo to avoid taking: Gervase and Hayden. Seriously: since Monica would vote for Gervase in this scenario, is there one vote Tyson could be sure of getting?

Last year this number-crunching scenario accurately predicted the winner in Cochran. I hope that gives me some shred of credibility.

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