Counting crabs: Survivor Cagayan May 7 2014 recap

7 May

Just six players are left in the game to begin this episode!

The morning after everyone gets back from Tribal Council, Tony, Spencer and Woo are up before the other three. Tony is answering questions about being a cop, so obviously he has finally dropped his “construction worker” cover story as far as Spencer and Tasha are concerned. He wonders aloud why Kass, usually an early riser, is in bed, and voices the thought that perhaps she’s not feeling well.

Kass, though lying down some distance away, is not asleep, and hears her name. And she thinks she hears Tony calling her “a bitch.” And confronts him about it when he comes over. Now, Tony said no such thing, and Spencer and Woo know it (perhaps others too). But they are not about to speak up, since Tony being a target of criticism means everyone else can stay low-key, which they are very happy to do. We see much more bickering between Kass and Tony, and finally Tony blurts out that he has the immunity idol that has with special powers. However, he won’t show it around.

Tony’s need for attention has hurt him throughout this game, and it’s never good to blurt things out, but announcing that he has the special idol is perhaps not a bad move in itself, since that knowledge would tend to prevent people from voting for you! By the way, I assume that nobody but Tony and us viewers knows just what the special powers are, namely that the idol can be used after the votes have been revealed.

By the way: the opening credits for this show simply call it Survivor: Cagayan now, with no mention of the “Brawns vs. Brains vs. Beauty” subtitle.

The reward challenge is won by Spencer, Kass, and Woo, who get to take presents to Filipino school kids. Woo entertains them with a little martial arts show as well. Afterward, the three have time to strategize. Kass and Spencer want to flush Tony’s idol (they know he has a regular idol, and didn’t believe him when he said he had a special idol). Spencer goes so far as to promise the other two that he’ll take them to the final three. But then, why wouldn’t he? As my rankings below would indicate, everyone probably wants to take Kass and Woo with them to the final three. Kass has a few double-crosses on her record, she’s not the warmest individual in the world, and she would seem to be financially well off, too. As for Woo, anyone up against him could say Woo was just Tony’s stooge and didn’t make any moves of his own. As for Spencer’s plan, Kass immediately says she’s fine with it, then just before they get back to camp, Woo says he’s in too.

While those three are gone, Tony frets about Spencer and Kass trying to recruit Woo, which is exactly what happened. But when Woo returns to camp and Tony grills him about this, Woo says the strategy talk was all about how to take out Tasha. And he says Spencer never even mentioned the concept that Tony might have an idol. However, all of this is too implausible for Tony, who starts wondering how much he can really trust Woo.

Time for the immunity challenge. Jeff Probst begins by taking the immunity necklace back from Tasha, and notes that her three immunity wins in a row put her just one short of the record held by … Kelly Wigglesworth! That’s right, it was set by a player in Season 1, and we are on Season 28!

The challenge is one that’s been done before. The players need to solve a combination lock, and each number in the combination is the number of a certain item that they have to count. The items are anything from pieces of bamboo to a bunch of crabs — living crabs that move around while you try to count them, mind you. Each time the players run back to the locks, they can only try one new combination before racing back out again. None of the players get their counts right on any of their early attempts, but finally Spencer ends up winning.

So back at camp, the three who were on the reward reaffirm their earlier plan: Spencer and Woo will vote for Tony, and Kass and Tasha will vote for Trish, ensuring either Trish or Tony will go home (not really, since Tony has two idols, but the others don’t believe that to be the case). So to allay suspicion, Tasha puts on a fake “resigned herself to her fate” persona. However, when Tony sees that Tasha isn’t scrambling, he gets suspicious that something is up.

Then Tasha and Kass vent to each other when they’re alone on the beach about what a jerk Tony is and how unlikable he is. But that gets Kass to thinking. Nobody likes Tony, right? So that being the case, people won’t vote for him to win, just as they didn’t vote for Russell Hantz in Survivor: Samoa. If that’s correct, Kass muses, Tony would be the ideal person to take to the end. So Kass soon heads over to Woo and suggests that instead of voting for Trish and Tony respectively, they both vote for Tasha. Woo’s eyes bulge out.

At Tribal Council, when the players are almost ready to vote, Kass announces that she expects a blindside. Tasha says she is hoping for a blindside (by which she means a blindside of Tony). When Jeff gets the votes, he asks about idols, and though Tony fingers his bag, he does not play his “regular” idol. The votes are read, and Tasha is sent home by a vote of 4-1-1, with only Tasha voting Trish and only Spencer voting Tony.

And really, all four of the people who voted for Tasha have improved their chances to win by doing so. Even Spencer probably hasn’t hurt his chance to win in front of the jury, but of course this did hurt his chance to get to the finals. In fact, I would go so far as to say that Spencer will definitely win if he makes the finals. He would be well served to win immunity next week though!

In my rankings, I finally moved Woo onto my “no chance list,” which I probably should have done a few weeks ago. I’ve had Tasha as my favorite to win all season, and of course that’s no longer possible.

Favorites to win, in order: Spencer, Trish, Tony

No chance: Kass, Woo

Jury and who I think they’ll vote for: Sarah (Trish), Morgan (Spencer), L.J. (Tony), Jeremiah (Spencer), Jefra (Trish), Tasha (Spencer)

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