Dan begins the episode by stating he doesn’t believe he’s at the bottom of his alliance. Why, I don’t know, but he doesn’t.
Dan comforts Shirin who is still trying to get over the tongue-lashing she got from Will (which Dan wasn’t present to witness when it happened). Dan then tells the camera that he feels bad for her having to go through that. However, he notes, “Shirin is a drama queen, she is a two-faced liar, she loooves to play the victim.” So far it certainly sounds like the producers are setting the stage for a Shirin ouster.
Eight people are left in the game. The reward challenge has randomly chosen teams competing to see who can get across a stretch of ground by moving barrels and planks, with neither their feet or the planks ever touching the ground. One team methodically moves forward with the barrels standing up in the normal fashion, but Mike’s idea for his team is to roll the barrels, a plan that can only work with him lying on top of barrels and through insane exertions and flexibility somehow making it work. Now, you’ll recall that Sierra’s profession is barrel racer, but apparently that doesn’t mean standing on rolling barrels but rather riding a horse around barrels. Oh well. Anyway, the team that wins is Tyler, Carolyn, Will, and Dan.
While those four are gone, Sierra tells Rodney that Tyler is going to win this game unless somebody does something. Hmm, has she been reading my rankings? I’m impressed, Sierra is showing that she’s a bit more of a gamer than I thought. Rodney says he’d rather get Shirin out, but Sierra says, who cares if Shirin goes all the way to the end? She won’t get votes.
On the reward, Dan bashes Mike, saying “There’s no Mike in team,” and the other three can’t encourage him enough. The more he focuses on Mike, the less he’ll realize that he’s at the bottom of their alliance. Basically all three are playing him for a sucker.
The immunity challenge is to hold onto a spool attached to a rope that holds up a bag with 25% of the person’s body weight (as of Day One of the season). Probst announces there will be two immunities, for the last man standing and the last woman. This gives Shirin hope, especially since there are only two other women, Carolyn and Sierra. Sierra drops out fairly early but Shirin just can’t hold on, and Carolyn wins for the women. The men’s duel is a real classic, coming down to Mike and Rodney. Rodney goes into a crouch and has Dan shouting encouragement the whole time from right next to him. Mike has a stoical expression but he’s sweating and you can see him talking to himself. The pain becomes excruciating for both men, and Mike takes a few peeks at Rodney. The music stops, and all you here is Rodney’s bag hit the floor. Mike has won, in an awesome performance.
This puts Shirin on the chopping block, but she has a strong case to make, namely that she’s not a threat to win any challenges or to win at the end. She also makes the solid point to Sierra that “by definition” Sierra’s group can’t be with her all the way to the end, because there are six of them. Sierra says she would vote Tyler if she thought two others would join her, but she doesn’t see that happening.
Speaking of Tyler, he has gotten curious about what Dan’s advantage is. So he simply takes Dan’s bag and goes off into the woods and reads what’s inside. It’s not hard to find since of course everyone knows the advantage was in a huge box.
Mike tries again to work on Dan, but without much success. He also ponders giving his idol to Shirin, since he knows the group of six won’t be splitting the vote and every vote will be for her.
Shirin gives a speech at tribal council advocating voting Tyler out.
It’s time to vote, but wait! Mike is speaking up. He shows everyone the idol that he has. Then he announces that Shirin will be voting for Tyler, and Mike will be voting for one of the others who doesn’t have immunity (Rodney, Dan, Sierra, or Will). “And you can take your chances,” he says.
OK, this is going to require some analysis. I believe what he’s saying is: if Mike gives the idol to Shirin, any votes for her would not count, and nobody can vote for Mike or Carolyn since they have immunity. So all votes would have to go toward Rodney, Dan, Carolyn, Sierra, or Tyler. Shirin is voting Tyler, so the other players have the choice to either vote for Tyler themselves and help get him out, or to vote for one of the other four. Since Mike says he’s voting for one of the other four, and Tyler has to with no other choice, anyone who fails to vote Tyler could find themselves voted out. And if Tyler himself plays an idol, one of the other four has to go.
The three on the jury (Hali, Joe, and Jenn) love every second of this. And the group of six doesn’t appear to confer before the vote. At least it’s not shown.
The votes are cast, Probst asks about an immunity idol, Mike stands up and … doesn’t play it! The votes are read: Shirin gets four votes, Tyler and Dan two each, and Shirin is out. Mike tells everyone “Dan’s still got two votes,” so evidently everyone now knows about Dan’s advantage.
And Probst ends the episode by saying even he is confused.
Now then: was Mike’s not playing the idol idiotic or genius? He neither played it, nor did he vote the way he said: he voted Tyler, as did Shirin. Tyler and Will voted Dan and everyone else, sensing a bluff evidently, voted Shirin.
So if Mike had just used the idol it would have been a 2-2 tie for Tyler and Dan. I would guess that on the re-vote (with Tyler and Dan not allowed to vote again) Mike, Shirin, Sierra, and Rodney would have voted Tyler; and Will and Carolyn would have voted Dan. So Tyler would’ve been out, with Shirin still in the game! So it seems like Mike made a mistake.
At least Mike has one thing going for him: now Dan knows he really is on the bottom of his alliance after all.
Favorites to win: 1) Tyler, 2) Mike, 3) Will
No chance: Carolyn, Dan, Rodney, Sierra
Jury and who I think they’ll vote for: Hali (Mike), Joe (Mike), Jenn (Mike), Shirin (Mike)